Laval 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Laval host Auxerre at Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Laval have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Auxerre — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Laval in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 45% versus Auxerre 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 50% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.04 xG and Auxerre 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.856 / defence 0.972 | Auxerre attack 1.161 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Data: 56 Laval games / 18 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 41%. Fair-value odds: Laval 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Laval 40% | Auxerre 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Laval 1.04 / Auxerre 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.856 / def 0.972 | Auxerre attack 1.161 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Auxerre kick off?
Laval vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Auxerre?
Laval 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Laval vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Auxerre part of?
Laval vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 30% chance of winning, Auxerre a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Laval and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Laval and Auxerre in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.86) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.52
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Laval xG
Total xG
2.31
1.27
Auxerre xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Laval and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Laval and 1.27 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Laval have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 24W 8D 24L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 18W 16D 22L from 56 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.43 PPG, Auxerre on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Laval have posted 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (14W 4D 10L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 8W 7D 13L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.29 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 24W 8D 24L in their last 56 games (1.43 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Auxerre away?
Laval's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.64 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Laval or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Auxerre in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Laval
0
Draws
2
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Auxerre?
From 2 meetings on record, Laval have won 0, Auxerre have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Auxerre 4-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 54%, Auxerre 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Laval) and 57% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Laval's games and 64% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Laval vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Laval's matches and 57% of Auxerre's.
Do Laval and Auxerre tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Laval.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Laval 1-3 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.04 xG and Auxerre 1.27 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Auxerre attack 1.16 / defence 1.00, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 30% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 41%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 50%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.43 PPG, Auxerre 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.