Guingamp 3-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Guingamp welcome Valenciennes to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stade du Roudourou — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Valenciennes — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 0.90 PPG, Valenciennes 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Valenciennes and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Valenciennes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 58% versus Valenciennes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Valenciennes 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.29 xG and Valenciennes 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.905 / defence 1.425 | Valenciennes attack 0.682 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Guingamp games / 60 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 30%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Valenciennes 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Valenciennes 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Guingamp 1.29 / Valenciennes 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.905 / def 1.425 | Valenciennes attack 0.682 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Valenciennes xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Valenciennes kick off?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Guingamp 3 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Guingamp vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Valenciennes part of?
Guingamp vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 42% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Guingamp and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 2 | Valenciennes 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Valenciennes in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (0.91) and Valenciennes's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valenciennes's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.58
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.32
1.03
Valenciennes xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.03 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 19D 19L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (17W 22D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.42 PPG, Valenciennes on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 11W 9D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.92 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 17W 22D 21L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Valenciennes away?
Guingamp's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.40 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Valenciennes specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Guingamp
3
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Valenciennes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Guingamp 3-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Valenciennes?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 67%, Valenciennes 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 27% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Guingamp's recent matches and 40% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 27% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Valenciennes 3-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.29 xG and Valenciennes 1.03 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.91 / defence 1.43 against Valenciennes attack 0.68 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 42% | Draw 28% | Valenciennes 30%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Valenciennes 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Valenciennes's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.42 PPG, Valenciennes 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.