Guingamp 3-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade du Roudourou this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rodez — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.50 PPG versus Rodez's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Rodez and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rodez trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 49% versus Rodez 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | Rodez 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.991 / defence 0.948 | Rodez attack 0.982 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Guingamp games / 57 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 26% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 26% | Rodez 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Guingamp 1.48 / Rodez 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.991 / def 0.948 | Rodez attack 0.982 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rodez xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Rodez kick off?
Guingamp vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 January 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Guingamp 3 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Guingamp vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Rodez part of?
Guingamp vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 47% chance of winning, Rodez a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Guingamp and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 2W | Draws 3 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.84
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.54
1.06
Rodez xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.06 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp's recent record stands at 22W 16D 19L from 57 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 18W 19D 20L across 57 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.44 PPG, Rodez on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 9W 7D 11L from 27 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Rodez in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 19D 20L in their last 57 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Rodez away?
Guingamp's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.26 PPG; Rodez away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2025, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Guingamp
5
Draws
1
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Rodez have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Guingamp 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Rodez?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 48%, Rodez 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 48% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Guingamp have failed to score in 37% of games; Rodez in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Guingamp's recent matches and 56% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 48% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Rodez tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Rodez finished level at 3-3 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.06 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.99 / defence 0.95 against Rodez attack 0.98 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 26% | Rodez 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 44%, Rodez 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.44 PPG, Rodez 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.