Guingamp 0-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Concarneau meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Concarneau (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Concarneau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Guingamp against 1.40 for Concarneau. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Concarneau half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Concarneau 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 53% | Concarneau 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.39 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.071 / defence 0.931 | Concarneau attack 0.865 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.124. Data: 55 Guingamp games / 17 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 24%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Concarneau 4.17. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Concarneau 22% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 48% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 1.39 / Concarneau 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.071 / def 0.931 | Concarneau attack 0.865 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Concarneau xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Concarneau kick off?
Guingamp vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Concarneau?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Guingamp vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Concarneau part of?
Guingamp vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 48% chance of winning, Concarneau a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Concarneau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guingamp and Concarneau in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Concarneau (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.07) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Concarneau's attack (0.86x) against Guingamp's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.52
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.29
0.91
Concarneau xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
16.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.91 for Concarneau, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 7W 6D 4L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Concarneau's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Concarneau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Concarneau.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 1.00 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Concarneau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Concarneau away?
Guingamp's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Concarneau in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Concarneau have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Concarneau 2-3 Guingamp.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Concarneau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Guingamp) and 25% (Concarneau) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Guingamp) and 38% (Concarneau).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Concarneau in 38%; Guingamp have failed to score in 38% of games; Concarneau in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 25% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Concarneau tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Concarneau defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.39 xG and Concarneau 0.91 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Concarneau attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 48% | Draw 28% | Concarneau 24%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Concarneau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 53%, Concarneau 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Concarneau's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Concarneau winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Concarneau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.