Guingamp vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Clermont Foot travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Guingamp 0.80 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 3 for Clermont Foot and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Clermont Foot winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Clermont Foot trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 54% versus Clermont Foot 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Clermont Foot 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.74 xG and Clermont Foot 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Clermont Foot attack 1.099 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 43 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 38%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Clermont Foot 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 39% | Draw 23% | Clermont Foot 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Guingamp 1.74 / Clermont Foot 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.050 / def 1.181 | Clermont Foot attack 1.099 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Clermont Foot xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Stade de Roudourou.
Where is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot part of?
Guingamp vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 39% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Guingamp and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 3W.
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in?
Guingamp (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Clermont Foot's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
39%
2.57
23%
4.29
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Guingamp xG
Total xG
3.45
1.71
Clermont Foot xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.18
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.71 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 12D 19L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 9W 17D 17L from 43 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.12 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.38 PPG from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 7D 10L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 12W 12D 19L in their last 43 games (1.12 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Clermont Foot away?
Guingamp's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Clermont Foot runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Clermont Foot have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2024, when Clermont Foot won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guingamp
0
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 43%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Guingamp) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Guingamp's recent matches and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Guingamp's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.