Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 33%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Boulogne travel to Stade de Roudourou to take on Guingamp. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's home record at Stade de Roudourou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boulogne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Boulogne's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Boulogne's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Guingamp's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guingamp, 0 for Boulogne and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 3–0 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Guingamp trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Boulogne trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 57% | Boulogne 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.06 xG and Boulogne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.927 / defence 0.966 | Boulogne attack 0.909 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Data: 35 Guingamp games / 35 Boulogne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 33%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Boulogne 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Boulogne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade de Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Guingamp 1.06 / Boulogne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.927 / def 0.966 | Boulogne attack 0.909 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Boulogne xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Boulogne kick off?
Guingamp vs Boulogne kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade de Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Guingamp 1 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Guingamp vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Boulogne part of?
Guingamp vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 33% chance of winning, Boulogne a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Guingamp and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Guingamp and Boulogne in?
Guingamp (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Boulogne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 0.93x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.00
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.13
1.07
Boulogne xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.07 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 33%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Guingamp's recent record stands at 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 16L across 35 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Boulogne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.14 PPG, Boulogne on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Guingamp have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 5W 6D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.97 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Boulogne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Boulogne away?
Guingamp's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.35 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Boulogne runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2026, when Guingamp won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting Boulogne specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Guingamp
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Boulogne?
From 3 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Boulogne?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 35%, Boulogne 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Guingamp) and 29% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Boulogne in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Guingamp's recent matches and 41% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Guingamp's recent games and 29% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Boulogne tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Boulogne 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Boulogne 1-0 at Stade de Roudourou, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.06 xG and Boulogne 1.07 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Boulogne landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Boulogne attack 0.91 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 33% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 33%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 33%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 57%, Boulogne 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Boulogne's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.14 PPG, Boulogne 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.