Guingamp 1-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.40 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Bastia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Guingamp winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Bastia in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 58% versus Bastia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Bastia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.59 xG and Bastia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.000 / defence 1.101 | Bastia attack 0.972 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.113. Bastia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Guingamp games / 50 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 25% | Bastia 29%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Bastia 3.45. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 50% | Bastia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 25% | Bastia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Guingamp 1.59 / Bastia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.000 / def 1.101 | Bastia attack 0.972 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bastia xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bastia kick off?
Guingamp vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Guingamp vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bastia part of?
Guingamp vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 47% chance of winning, Bastia a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Guingamp and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
Record (2 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in?
Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
47%
2.15
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Bastia xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.19 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 20W 16D 14L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 15W 18D 17L from 50 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.52 PPG, Bastia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 7W 5D 13L from 25 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.02 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 20W 16D 14L in their last 50 games (1.52 PPG), while Bastia have gone 15W 18D 17L in their last 50 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bastia away?
Guingamp's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.64 PPG; Bastia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 68%, Bastia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Guingamp) and 48% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Bastia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Guingamp's games and 48% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Guingamp's recent games and 48% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bastia tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bastia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Bastia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp and Bastia finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.59 xG and Bastia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Bastia attack 0.97 / defence 1.33, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 47% | Draw 25% | Bastia 29%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Bastia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.52 PPG, Bastia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.