Grenoble 2-1 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Grenoble at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grenoble vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Concarneau travel to Stade des Alpes to take on Grenoble. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Grenoble stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stade des Alpes, Grenoble have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Grenoble are significantly better at Stade des Alpes than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Concarneau have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Concarneau's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grenoble at 0.50 PPG versus Concarneau's 0.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Grenoble have won 1, Concarneau 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2023, ended 3–0 with Grenoble winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Grenoble in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Concarneau in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grenoble 43% versus Concarneau 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grenoble 40% | Concarneau 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grenoble 1.07 xG and Concarneau 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grenoble attack 0.797 / defence 0.943 | Concarneau attack 0.710 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Grenoble's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 73 Grenoble games / 35 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 33% | Concarneau 25%. Fair-value odds: Grenoble 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Concarneau 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Concarneau's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grenoble offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Grenoble 40% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grenoble vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade des Alpes • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grenoble 42% | Draw 33% | Concarneau 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Grenoble 1.07 / Concarneau 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Grenoble attack 0.797 / def 0.943 | Concarneau attack 0.710 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Grenoble xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Concarneau xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grenoble vs Concarneau kick off?
Grenoble vs Concarneau kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade des Alpes.
What was the final score in Grenoble vs Concarneau?
Grenoble 2 - 1 Concarneau.
Where is Grenoble vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Alpes.
What competition is Grenoble vs Concarneau part of?
Grenoble vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Grenoble vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Grenoble a 42% chance of winning, Concarneau a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grenoble vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Grenoble and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Grenoble vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Concarneau?
Record (1 meetings): Grenoble 1W | Draws 0 | Concarneau 0W.
What form are Grenoble and Concarneau in?
Grenoble (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Concarneau (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grenoble's attack rating (0.80) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Grenoble's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.07
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Grenoble xG
Total xG
1.84
0.76
Concarneau xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 13.1 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grenoble vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Grenoble and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Grenoble and 0.76 for Concarneau, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Grenoble vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Grenoble have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 11W 12D 12L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Concarneau's form line: 9W 8D 18L from 35 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grenoble on 1.29 PPG, Concarneau on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Grenoble have posted 1.47 PPG from 17 outings (6W 7D 4L).
On the road, Concarneau have gone 5W 3D 9L from 17 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grenoble come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grenoble are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.94 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grenoble
Current Season
Concarneau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grenoble and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Grenoble have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 9W 8D 18L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grenoble at home or Concarneau away?
Grenoble's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grenoble at home: 1.47 PPG; Concarneau away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Grenoble or Concarneau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grenoble have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Concarneau in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Grenoble
0
Draws
0
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grenoble and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Grenoble have won 2, Concarneau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grenoble and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Grenoble 2-1 Concarneau.
Who has won more matches between Grenoble and Concarneau?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Grenoble 35% BTTS, Concarneau 18%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Grenoble and 29% for Concarneau.
On the defensive side: Grenoble keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Grenoble have failed to score in 47% of games; Concarneau in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grenoble home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grenoble play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Grenoble's recent matches and 18% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Grenoble vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Grenoble's recent games and 29% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Concarneau 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Concarneau 2-1 at Stade des Alpes, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grenoble 1.07 xG and Concarneau 0.76 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Grenoble beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grenoble attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Concarneau attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grenoble 42% | Draw 33% | Concarneau 25%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grenoble 40%, Concarneau 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grenoble's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Concarneau's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grenoble 1.29 PPG, Concarneau 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Concarneau (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.