Estac Troyes 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Rodez at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Stade de l'Aube this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Aube. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Estac Troyes have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Rodez have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Estac Troyes's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 1–2 with Rodez winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Rodez have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rodez trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 33% versus Rodez 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Rodez 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 2.25 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.395 / defence 0.992 | Rodez attack 0.934 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.205. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.395 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Estac Troyes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Estac Troyes games / 49 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 63% | Draw 19% | Rodez 18%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 1.59 | Draw 5.26 | Rodez 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Estac Troyes (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Rodez lead the H2H ledger, but Estac Troyes carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 63% | Draw 19% | Rodez 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Estac Troyes 2.25 / Rodez 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.395 / def 0.992 | Rodez attack 0.934 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Rodez xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Rodez kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Estac Troyes 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Rodez part of?
Estac Troyes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 63% chance of winning, Rodez a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Estac Troyes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Rodez 4W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.25. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
63%
1.59
19%
5.16
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
3.36
1.12
Rodez xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
53.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.12 for Rodez, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Rodez?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 22W 9D 18L from 49 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 19L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.53 PPG, Rodez on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 14W 4D 6L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 5W 8D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 67%.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 22W 9D 18L in their last 49 games (1.53 PPG), while Rodez have gone 13W 17D 19L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Rodez away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.92 PPG; Rodez away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rodez in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Rodez won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
5
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 0, Rodez have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Rodez 2-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 29%, Rodez 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Estac Troyes) and 62% (Rodez). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 62% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Estac Troyes's matches and 62% of Rodez's.
Do Estac Troyes and Rodez tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rodez in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 16, as Estac Troyes and Rodez drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 2.25 xG and Rodez 1.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.40 / defence 0.99 against Rodez attack 0.93 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 63% | Draw 19% | Rodez 18%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.53 PPG, Rodez 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.