Estac Troyes 3-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Estac Troyes welcome PAU to Stade de l'Aube. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estac Troyes have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade de l'Aube — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PAU's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estac Troyes register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PAU in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Estac Troyes, 0 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAU in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 54% versus PAU 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | PAU 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.19 xG and PAU 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.783 / defence 1.323 | PAU attack 1.098 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.139. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Estac Troyes games / 48 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 24% | PAU 48%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | PAU 2.08. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 60% | PAU 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 24% | PAU 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Estac Troyes 1.19 / PAU 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.783 / def 1.323 | PAU attack 1.098 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: PAU (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.66
PAU xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs PAU kick off?
Estac Troyes vs PAU kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Estac Troyes 3 - 0 PAU.
Where is Estac Troyes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs PAU part of?
Estac Troyes vs PAU is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 27% chance of winning, PAU a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Estac Troyes and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Record (2 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 2 | PAU 0W.
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 0.78x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
27%
3.64
24%
4.12
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.84
1.66
PAU xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
19.07
15%
6.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.66 for PAU, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 16D 21L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAU's form line: 17W 15D 16L from 48 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.02 PPG, PAU on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, PAU have gone 7W 8D 8L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.52 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAU in 60%.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and PAU in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while PAU have gone 17W 15D 16L in their last 48 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or PAU away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.26 PPG; PAU away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2024, when Estac Troyes won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estac Troyes's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
3
Draws
0
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, PAU have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Estac Troyes 4-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and PAU?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Estac Troyes at 65%, PAU at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Estac Troyes and 65% for PAU. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Estac Troyes's games and 74% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Estac Troyes's matches and 65% of PAU's.
Do Estac Troyes and PAU tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, PAU in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat PAU 3-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.19 xG and PAU 1.66 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.78 / defence 1.32 against PAU attack 1.10 / defence 1.07, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 27% | Draw 24% | PAU 48%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, PAU 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.02 PPG, PAU 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.