Estac Troyes 5-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Estac Troyes at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Aube plays host to Estac Troyes versus Dunkerque in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Estac Troyes (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes at Stade de l'Aube this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dunkerque have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Estac Troyes. A 0.70 PPG lead over Dunkerque (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Dunkerque in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Estac Troyes lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 38% versus Dunkerque 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 49% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.56 xG and Dunkerque 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.361 / defence 1.067 | Dunkerque attack 1.101 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.172. Estac Troyes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Estac Troyes games / 61 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 33%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Dunkerque 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Dunkerque lead the H2H ledger, but Estac Troyes carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 70% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Estac Troyes 1.56 / Dunkerque 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.361 / def 1.067 | Dunkerque attack 1.101 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Dunkerque xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Estac Troyes 5 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque part of?
Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 41% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Estac Troyes and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Estac Troyes 1W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 3W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.36x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.10x) against Estac Troyes's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.77
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.94
1.38
Dunkerque xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.38 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 29W 11D 21L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque's form line: 28W 14D 19L from 61 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Estac Troyes against 1.61 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.44 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 29W 11D 21L in their last 61 games (1.61 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 28W 14D 19L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Dunkerque away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.97 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estac Troyes won 5-1 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estac Troyes have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Estac Troyes
1
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 2, Dunkerque have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Estac Troyes 5-1 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 37%, Dunkerque 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Estac Troyes) and 40% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 30% of games; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 53% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 40% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Dunkerque 5-1 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.56 xG and Dunkerque 1.38 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.36 / defence 1.07 against Dunkerque attack 1.10 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 41% | Draw 27% | Dunkerque 33%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 49%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.61 PPG, Dunkerque 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.