Estac Troyes 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Bastia travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.20 PPG versus Bastia's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Estac Troyes have won 0, Bastia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Bastia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bastia trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 65% versus Bastia 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 58% | Bastia 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.135 / defence 1.258 | Bastia attack 1.051 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.076. Data: 27 Estac Troyes games / 65 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Bastia 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Estac Troyes 60% | Bastia 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Estac Troyes 1.41 / Bastia 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.135 / def 1.258 | Bastia attack 1.051 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Bastia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bastia kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Estac Troyes 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bastia part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 37% chance of winning, Bastia a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Record (1 meetings): Estac Troyes 0W | Draws 0 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (1.14) and Bastia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.80
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.83
1.42
Bastia xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.42 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 11W 22D 32L from 65 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 23L across 65 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bastia by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estac Troyes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 7W 13D 12L from 32 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 15L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.25 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 11W 22D 32L in their last 65 games (0.85 PPG), while Bastia have gone 26W 16D 23L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bastia away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.06 PPG; Bastia away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
From 6 meetings on record, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 69%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Estac Troyes) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 28% of games; Bastia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Bastia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Estac Troyes's games and 47% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estac Troyes vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bastia tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bastia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.41 xG and Bastia 1.42 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bastia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.14 / defence 1.26 against Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 37% | Draw 26% | Bastia 37%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 58%, Bastia 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Estac Troyes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.