Dunkerque 0-2 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Laval at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dunkerque vs Laval encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Laval travel to Stade Marcel-Tribut to take on Dunkerque. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dunkerque stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season: 0W 2D 5L from 7 home games — 0.29 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.29 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel-Tribut this season.
Laval — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Laval have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Laval are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Dunkerque trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Laval trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Dunkerque 36% | Laval 29%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 43% | Laval 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.56 xG and Laval 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.583 / defence 1.204 | Laval attack 1.016 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.583 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Laval's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 14 Dunkerque games / 52 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | Laval 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Laval (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Laval as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 43% | Laval 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 33% | xG Dunkerque 0.56 / Laval 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.583 / def 1.204 | Laval attack 1.016 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Laval (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Laval xG
33%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Laval kick off?
Dunkerque vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Laval?
Dunkerque 0 - 2 Laval.
Where is Dunkerque vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Laval part of?
Dunkerque vs Laval is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 14% chance of winning, Laval a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Dunkerque and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Laval?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dunkerque and Laval in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Laval (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.58x league average) is weighed against Laval's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Laval's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 18.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-2 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
14%
7.01
27%
3.73
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.1%
Away win
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.00
1.44
Laval xG
7.01
14%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.07
67%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
3%
29.61
34%
2.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 19.6 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.44 for Laval, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Laval?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 3D 8L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Laval carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dunkerque's home form reads 0W 2D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.29 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Laval have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Laval come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.14 scored and 0.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Laval in 29%.
Defensively: Laval in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Laval in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 8L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Laval have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Laval away?
Laval's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.29 PPG; Laval away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Laval in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Laval runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque's record when hosting Laval specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
1
Draws
3
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Laval?
From 6 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Laval have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Dunkerque 0-2 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Laval see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 43%, Laval 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dunkerque) and 43% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 71%; Dunkerque have failed to score in 57% of games; Laval in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 29% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dunkerque's recent games and 43% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Laval cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Dunkerque 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.56 xG and Laval 1.44 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.58 / defence 1.20 against Laval attack 1.02 / defence 0.73, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 14% | Draw 27% | Laval 59%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 43%, Laval 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Laval's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Laval arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.