Dijon vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dijon vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dijon host Annecy at in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L from 9 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.78 goals per game, with 1.78 conceded. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dijon's home record at : 2W 0D 2L from 4 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Annecy — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dijon at 1.33 PPG versus Annecy's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Dijon have won 1, Annecy 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Dijon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dijon in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dijon 89% and Annecy 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 56% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.56 xG and Annecy 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.229 / defence 1.360 | Annecy attack 0.971 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Data: 9 Dijon games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 24% | Annecy 42%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 75% | Annecy 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 34% | Draw 24% | Annecy 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Dijon 1.56 / Annecy 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.229 / def 1.360 | Annecy attack 0.971 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Annecy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Annecy xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Annecy kick off?
Dijon vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 March 2027.
What competition is Dijon vs Annecy part of?
Dijon vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 34% chance of winning, Annecy a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Dijon and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
Record (3 meetings): Dijon 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Dijon and Annecy in?
Dijon (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.78 / GA 1.78 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.23) and Annecy's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
34%
2.91
24%
4.19
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dijon xG
Total xG
3.30
1.74
Annecy xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Dijon and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dijon and 1.74 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dijon come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.33 PPG, Annecy on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Dijon's home form reads 2W 0D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dijon are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dijon have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; Annecy in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Annecy in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Annecy have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Annecy away?
Dijon's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.50 PPG; Annecy away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dijon or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dijon have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dijon
1
Draws
1
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Annecy?
From 3 meetings on record, Dijon have won 1, Annecy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Annecy 1-2 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Dijon at 75%, Annecy at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Dijon and 75% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Dijon's games and 75% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dijon vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Dijon's matches and 75% of Annecy's.
Do Dijon and Annecy tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Annecy in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.