Caen 4-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Caen take on Rodez.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Caen welcome Rodez to Stade Michel d'Ornano. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 0.71 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Rodez attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 1.023. Data: 0 Caen games / 0 Rodez games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Caen 21% | Draw 41% | Rodez 38%. Fair-value odds: Caen 4.76 | Draw 2.44 | Rodez 2.63. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 21% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.71 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 21% | Draw 41% | Rodez 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 36% | xG Caen 0.71 / Rodez 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Rodez attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Rodez xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Rodez kick off?
Caen vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Rodez?
Caen 4 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Caen vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Rodez part of?
Caen vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 21% chance of winning, Rodez a 38% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Caen and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Caen and Rodez in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Caen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Caen's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
21%
4.70
41%
2.43
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Caen xG
Total xG
1.71
1.00
Rodez xG
4.70
21%
Home win
2.43
41%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.2 | 18.2 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Caen and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Caen and 1.00 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Pre-Season
Rodez
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Caen and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jul 2021, when Caen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Caen's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
2
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Rodez 2-2 Caen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Caen run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Caen beat Rodez 4-0 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 0.71 xG and Rodez 1.00 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Caen beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 21% | Draw 41% | Rodez 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Caen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.