Boulogne 1-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Boulogne welcome Estac Troyes to Stade de la Libération. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Boulogne stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne at Stade de la Libération this season: 2W 1D 6L from 9 home games — 0.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.78 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade de la Libération this season.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Estac Troyes's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Boulogne's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Boulogne in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 61% versus Estac Troyes 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 50% | Estac Troyes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.04 xG and Estac Troyes 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.986 / defence 1.514 | Estac Troyes attack 0.947 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.186. Data: 16 Boulogne games / 50 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 23% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 53%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 1.89. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 67% | Estac Troyes 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade de la Libération • Kick-off: Monday 15 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 23% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Boulogne 1.04 / Estac Troyes 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.986 / def 1.514 | Estac Troyes attack 0.947 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Estac Troyes xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Boulogne vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 December 2025 at Stade de la Libération.
What was the final score in Boulogne vs Estac Troyes?
Boulogne 1 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Boulogne vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Libération.
What competition is Boulogne vs Estac Troyes part of?
Boulogne vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 23% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Boulogne and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Estac Troyes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Boulogne and Estac Troyes in?
Boulogne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Boulogne's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Estac Troyes's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Boulogne's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
23%
4.32
24%
4.16
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.74
1.70
Estac Troyes xG
4.32
23%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
4%
23.64
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.70 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Boulogne's recent record stands at 5W 4D 9L from 18 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 10W 5D 3L across 18 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estac Troyes by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Boulogne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Boulogne have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 2W 4D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Estac Troyes's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Boulogne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boulogne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 games (1.06 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 10W 5D 3L in their last 18 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.88 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Boulogne
0
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Estac Troyes?
From 2 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Estac Troyes 1-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Estac Troyes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Boulogne) and 38% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 38%; Estac Troyes in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 50% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Boulogne's matches and 38% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Boulogne and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Boulogne 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Boulogne 1-2 at Stade de la Libération, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Boulogne 1.04 xG and Estac Troyes 1.70 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Boulogne attack 0.99 / defence 1.51 against Estac Troyes attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Boulogne 23% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 53%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Boulogne 50%, Estac Troyes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Boulogne's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Estac Troyes arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.