Boulogne vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Boulogne vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Boulogne and Clermont Foot meet at in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Boulogne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Boulogne have posted 1W 5D 4L at — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Boulogne, 1.00 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Boulogne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Clermont Foot in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Boulogne 1W, Clermont Foot 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Boulogne 49% versus Clermont Foot 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Boulogne 40% | Clermont Foot 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Boulogne 1.33 xG and Clermont Foot 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Boulogne attack 0.814 / defence 0.977 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Boulogne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Boulogne games / 43 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Boulogne 34% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 39%. Fair-value odds: Boulogne 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Clermont Foot 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Clermont Foot at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Boulogne 60% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Boulogne vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 5 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Boulogne 34% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Boulogne 1.33 / Clermont Foot 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Boulogne attack 0.814 / def 0.977 | Clermont Foot attack 1.093 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Boulogne xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Clermont Foot xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Boulogne vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Boulogne vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 5 February 2027.
What competition is Boulogne vs Clermont Foot part of?
Boulogne vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Boulogne a 34% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Boulogne and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Boulogne vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
Record (5 meetings): Boulogne 1W | Draws 2 | Clermont Foot 2W.
What form are Boulogne and Clermont Foot in?
Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Boulogne's attack rating (0.81) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.09x) against Boulogne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.73
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Boulogne xG
Total xG
2.76
1.43
Clermont Foot xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.12
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Boulogne and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Boulogne and 1.43 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Boulogne vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Boulogne come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 15D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.02 PPG from 43 outings (9W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Boulogne against 1.02 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Boulogne's home form reads 4W 6D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Boulogne are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Boulogne
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Boulogne and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 17D 17L in their last 43 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Boulogne at home or Clermont Foot away?
Clermont Foot's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Boulogne at home: 0.86 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Boulogne or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Boulogne have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Boulogne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Boulogne
2
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
From 5 meetings on record, Boulogne have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Boulogne and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Clermont Foot 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Boulogne and Clermont Foot?
Clermont Foot have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Boulogne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Boulogne 62%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Boulogne) and 52% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Boulogne have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Boulogne home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Boulogne play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Boulogne's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Boulogne vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Boulogne's recent games and 52% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Boulogne and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Boulogne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.