Bordeaux 1-0 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Nimes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bordeaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Bordeaux are significantly better at Stade Matmut-Atlantique than their overall form suggests.
Nimes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Nimes have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Bordeaux. A 0.60 PPG lead over Nimes (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bordeaux register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Nimes in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bordeaux lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Nimes winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Nimes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 62% versus Nimes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 57% | Nimes 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.67 xG and Nimes 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.000 / defence 1.059 | Nimes attack 0.993 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.035. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Bordeaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Bordeaux games / 65 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 50% | Draw 27% | Nimes 23%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Nimes 4.35. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 70% | Nimes 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 50% | Draw 27% | Nimes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Bordeaux 1.67 / Nimes 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.000 / def 1.059 | Nimes attack 0.993 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Nimes xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Nimes kick off?
Bordeaux vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Nimes?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Nimes.
Where is Bordeaux vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Nimes part of?
Bordeaux vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 50% chance of winning, Nimes a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bordeaux and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Nimes?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 0W | Draws 0 | Nimes 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Nimes in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Nimes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.00x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nimes's attack (0.99x) against Bordeaux's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.68
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.76
1.09
Nimes xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
4%
22.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.09 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bordeaux come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 21D 25L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nimes sit at 1.15 PPG from 65 outings (21W 12D 32L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.15 for Nimes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bordeaux's home form reads 10W 11D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Nimes have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (9W 6D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bordeaux have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Nimes in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 19W 21D 25L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Nimes have gone 21W 12D 32L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Nimes away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.28 PPG; Nimes away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
0
Draws
1
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Nimes?
From 2 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Nimes have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Bordeaux 1-0 Nimes.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 62%, Nimes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bordeaux) and 56% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Nimes in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bordeaux's games and 53% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bordeaux vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bordeaux's recent games and 56% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Nimes tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Nimes in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Nimes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Nimes 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.67 xG and Nimes 1.09 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nimes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.00 / defence 1.06 against Nimes attack 0.99 / defence 1.37, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 50% | Draw 27% | Nimes 23%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 57%, Nimes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Nimes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.20 PPG, Nimes 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Nimes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.