Bastia 1-1 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bastia face PAU.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Armand-Césari to face Bastia in Ligue 2 (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bastia at home: 4W 6D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bastia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
PAU's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Bastia, 1.20 for PAU — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Bastia edge it 3 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Bastia 1–1 PAU — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 44% | PAU 53%). Note also that PAU surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Bastia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.55 xG and PAU 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.195 / defence 0.857 | PAU attack 0.983 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.014. Data: built from Bastia's last 57 games and PAU's last 57.
Result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | PAU 21%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 1.86 | Draw 3.90 | PAU 4.83. Bastia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bastia 50% (last 10 home games) | PAU 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 20 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | PAU 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Bastia 1.55 / PAU 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.195 / def 0.857 | PAU attack 0.983 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Bastia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
PAU xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bastia vs PAU FAQs
What time does Bastia vs PAU kick off?
Bastia vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs PAU?
Bastia 1 - 1 PAU.
Where is Bastia vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs PAU part of?
Bastia vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 20) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 54% chance of winning, PAU a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bastia and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Bastia vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bastia's attack rating (1.20) and PAU's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.98x) against Bastia's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Bastia's last 57 games and PAU's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.90
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.40
0.85
PAU xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
22.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.0 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bastia vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bastia and 0.85 for PAU, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bastia come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 19D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (20W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Bastia against 1.37 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bastia's home form reads 12W 10D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 28 away games (8W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bastia are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.44 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
PAU
Blended
Bastia (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bastia
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Bastia vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Bastia and PAU in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 19W 19D 19L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while PAU have gone 20W 18D 19L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or PAU away?
Bastia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.64 PPG; PAU away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Bastia or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, PAU in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 4 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won PAU 2-6 Bastia on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bastia
5
Draws
2
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Bastia vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and PAU?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bastia have won 3, PAU have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and PAU?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 43%, PAU 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bastia) and 61% (PAU). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Bastia have failed to score in 32% of games; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bastia vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bastia and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bastia's recent matches and 64% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bastia and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bastia's matches and 61% of PAU's.
Do Bastia and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Bastia's recent matches and 61% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bastia and PAU share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 20, as Bastia and PAU drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.55 xG and PAU 0.85 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against PAU attack 0.98 / defence 1.00, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 54% | Draw 26% | PAU 21%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 44%, PAU 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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