Bastia 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bastia have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Paris FC's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bastia's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bastia, 3 for Paris FC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Paris FC trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 44% versus Paris FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 41% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.882 / defence 1.062 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Data: 75 Bastia games / 75 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Paris FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Bastia 1.06 / Paris FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.882 / def 1.062 | Paris FC attack 0.935 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Paris FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Paris FC kick off?
Bastia vs Paris FC kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Bastia 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Bastia vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Paris FC part of?
Bastia vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 32% chance of winning, Paris FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bastia and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 3W.
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in?
Bastia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Paris FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.88x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.26
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Paris FC xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bastia and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bastia and 1.16 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 75 games, going 31W 17D 27L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.51 PPG from 75 outings (31W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.47 PPG, Paris FC on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 19W 8D 10L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 37 outings (13W 13D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 31W 17D 27L in their last 75 games (1.47 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 31W 20D 24L in their last 75 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Paris FC away?
Bastia's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.76 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Bastia or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Paris FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
1
Draws
4
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Paris FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 38%, Paris FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bastia) and 35% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Paris FC in 35%; Bastia have failed to score in 27% of games; Paris FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bastia's recent matches and 49% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bastia's recent games and 35% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bastia and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.06 xG and Paris FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 32% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 37%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 41%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.47 PPG, Paris FC 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.