Bastia 0-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nancy at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bastia vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bastia welcome Nancy to Stade Armand Cesari. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand Cesari: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Nancy — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Bastia) versus 0.90 (Nancy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bastia have won 0, Nancy 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Nancy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Nancy trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Bastia 30% | Nancy 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 25% | Nancy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.16 xG and Nancy 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.759 / defence 1.142 | Nancy attack 0.887 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.188. Bastia's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Bastia games / 20 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 28% | Nancy 37%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Nancy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nancy at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 50% | Nancy 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Armand Cesari • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 35% | Draw 28% | Nancy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bastia 1.16 / Nancy 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.759 / def 1.142 | Nancy attack 0.887 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Nancy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Nancy xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Nancy kick off?
Bastia vs Nancy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at Stade Armand Cesari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Nancy?
Bastia 0 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Bastia vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand Cesari.
What competition is Bastia vs Nancy part of?
Bastia vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 35% chance of winning, Nancy a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bastia and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Nancy?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Nancy 2W.
What form are Bastia and Nancy in?
Bastia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Nancy (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bastia's attack at 0.76x the league average against Nancy's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.58
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bastia xG
Total xG
2.36
1.20
Nancy xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bastia and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bastia and 1.20 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bastia come into this having played 20 games, going 4W 5D 11L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (6W 3D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 0.85 PPG, Nancy on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bastia's home form reads 3W 2D 5L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 1.10 points per game from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Bastia are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.90 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bastia have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Nancy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while Nancy have gone 6W 3D 11L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Nancy away?
Bastia's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.10 PPG; Nancy away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Bastia or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nancy in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bastia and Nancy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bastia's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Bastia
2
Draws
2
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 0, Nancy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bastia 0-0 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Nancy?
Nancy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Nancy 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bastia) and 70% (Nancy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bastia have failed to score in 30% of games; Nancy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bastia's games and 60% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bastia vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Bastia's matches and 70% of Nancy's.
Do Bastia and Nancy tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Nancy in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Nancy finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand Cesari, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.16 xG and Nancy 1.20 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Nancy landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Nancy attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 35% | Draw 28% | Nancy 37%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 25%, Nancy 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nancy's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 0.85 PPG, Nancy 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.