Bastia 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Annecy travel to Stade Armand-Césari to take on Bastia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 October 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bastia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bastia's home record at Stade Armand-Césari: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bastia are significantly better at Stade Armand-Césari than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bastia 0.80 PPG, Annecy 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bastia, 0 for Annecy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bastia trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Annecy trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 43% versus Annecy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bastia 40% | Annecy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.64 xG and Annecy 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.150 / defence 1.492 | Annecy attack 1.016 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 0.997. Data: 47 Bastia games / 47 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bastia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 70% | Annecy 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Bastia 1.64 / Annecy 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.150 / def 1.492 | Annecy attack 1.016 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.239 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Bastia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Annecy xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Annecy kick off?
Bastia vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Bastia 2 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Bastia vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Annecy part of?
Bastia vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 41% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bastia and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Bastia 2W | Draws 0 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Bastia and Annecy in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bastia's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Bastia's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.24
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bastia xG
Total xG
3.15
1.51
Annecy xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Bastia and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bastia and 1.51 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bastia come into this having played 47 games, going 19W 11D 17L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.19 PPG from 47 outings (13W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bastia on 1.45 PPG, Annecy on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bastia's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (3W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bastia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bastia are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.06 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Annecy have gone 13W 17D 17L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Annecy away?
Bastia's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.87 PPG; Annecy away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Bastia or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Annecy in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Bastia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bastia's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bastia
2
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Bastia have won 3, Annecy have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Bastia 0-2 Annecy.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 39%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bastia) and 56% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Annecy in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Bastia's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bastia's recent games and 56% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Annecy tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Annecy in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Annecy 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Annecy 2-1 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 10, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.64 xG and Annecy 1.51 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.15 / defence 1.49 against Annecy attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 41% | Draw 24% | Annecy 36%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 40%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 1.45 PPG, Annecy 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.