Annecy 0-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 1W 1D 3L at Parc des Sports — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.20 PPG, PAU 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Annecy trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
PAU trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Annecy 18% | PAU 46%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 27% | PAU 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.72 xG and PAU 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.570 / defence 1.086 | PAU attack 0.768 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.147. Annecy's attack strength of 0.570 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Annecy games / 49 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 27% | Draw 34% | PAU 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | PAU 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Annecy's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.68 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 20% | PAU 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 27% | Draw 34% | PAU 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Annecy 0.72 / PAU 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.570 / def 1.086 | PAU attack 0.768 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.96
PAU xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs PAU kick off?
Annecy vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs PAU?
Annecy 0 - 2 PAU.
Where is Annecy vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs PAU part of?
Annecy vs PAU is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 27% chance of winning, PAU a 40% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Annecy and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and PAU in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. PAU (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.57) and PAU's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
27%
3.77
34%
2.95
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.68
0.96
PAU xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
19%
5.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 17.8 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Annecy and 0.96 for PAU, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.09 PPG, PAU on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 1W 1D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.82 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and PAU in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while PAU have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 0.80 PPG; PAU away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Annecy or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, PAU in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and PAU runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2026, when Annecy won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting PAU specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Annecy
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and PAU?
From 8 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Annecy 5-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 20%, PAU 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Annecy and 20% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Annecy's recent matches and 60% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Annecy's recent games and 20% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and PAU tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PAU in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Annecy 0-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.72 xG and PAU 0.96 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.57 / defence 1.09 against PAU attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 27% | Draw 34% | PAU 40%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 27%, PAU 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAU's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.09 PPG, PAU 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.