Annecy 0-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Metz (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Metz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Annecy against 2.00 for Metz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Annecy 0W, Metz 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Metz — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 36% versus Metz 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Annecy 36% | Metz 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.05 xG and Metz 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.003 / defence 0.830 | Metz attack 1.158 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Data: 25 Annecy games / 25 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 34% | Metz 31%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Metz 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 20% | Metz 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 35% | Draw 34% | Metz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Annecy 1.05 / Metz 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.003 / def 0.830 | Metz attack 1.158 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Annecy (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Metz xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Metz kick off?
Annecy vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Metz?
Annecy 0 - 3 Metz.
Where is Annecy vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Metz part of?
Annecy vs Metz is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 35% chance of winning, Metz a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Annecy and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Annecy and Metz in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Metz (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Annecy's attack at 1.00x the league average against Metz's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (1.16x) against Annecy's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
35%
2.84
34%
2.96
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.01
0.97
Metz xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
11%
9.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Annecy and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Annecy and 0.97 for Metz, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Annecy come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 8D 9L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Annecy against 1.64 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Annecy's home form reads 6W 2D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.50 points per game from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Annecy are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.48 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Metz in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Metz in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Metz have gone 11W 8D 6L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Metz away?
Annecy's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.67 PPG; Metz away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Annecy or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Metz in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Metz won 5-1 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Annecy
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Metz 5-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Metz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Annecy) and 42% (Metz) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Annecy and 33% for Metz.
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 42% of games; Metz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Annecy's recent matches and 42% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Annecy's recent games and 33% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Metz tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Metz in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Annecy 0-3 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.05 xG and Metz 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Metz outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.00 / defence 0.83 against Metz attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 35% | Draw 34% | Metz 31%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Metz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 36%, Metz 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.28 PPG, Metz 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.