Annecy 0-0 Lorient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lorient at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Lorient encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Annecy welcome Lorient to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Annecy — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Annecy's home record at Parc des Sports: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Lorient have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lorient have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lorient's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Annecy's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Annecy, 1 for Lorient and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–4 with Lorient winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (64 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Lorient in-play tendencies (64 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 50% versus Lorient 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 48% | Lorient 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.17 xG and Lorient 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.864 / defence 1.074 | Lorient attack 1.106 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.111. Data: 68 Annecy games / 30 Lorient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 27% | Lorient 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Lorient 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lorient are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lorient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 40% | Lorient 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Lorient | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 33% | Draw 27% | Lorient 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Annecy 1.17 / Lorient 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.864 / def 1.074 | Lorient attack 1.106 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Lorient (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Lorient xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Lorient kick off?
Annecy vs Lorient kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Lorient?
Annecy 0 - 0 Lorient.
Where is Annecy vs Lorient being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Lorient part of?
Annecy vs Lorient is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Lorient?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 33% chance of winning, Lorient a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Lorient?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Annecy and Lorient will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Lorient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Lorient?
Record (1 meetings): Annecy 0W | Draws 0 | Lorient 1W.
What form are Annecy and Lorient in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Lorient (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Annecy's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lorient's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Lorient's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.71
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Lorient xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
13%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Lorient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Annecy and Lorient expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Annecy and 1.32 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Lorient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Annecy come into this having played 64 games, going 23W 16D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Lorient sit at 1.45 PPG from 64 outings (27W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.33 PPG, Lorient on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Annecy's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Lorient have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Annecy are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Lorient are on 1.58 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Lorient
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Lorient in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 23W 16D 25L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Lorient have gone 27W 12D 25L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Lorient away?
Annecy's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.37 PPG; Lorient away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Annecy or Lorient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lorient in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Annecy and Lorient runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
1
Draws
1
Lorient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Lorient?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Lorient have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Lorient last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Annecy 0-0 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Lorient?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 47%, Lorient 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 57% (Lorient).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 27% of games; Lorient in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Lorient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Lorient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Annecy's recent matches and 53% of Lorient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Lorient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 57% of Lorient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Lorient tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lorient in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Annecy's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy and Lorient finished level at 0-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.17 xG and Lorient 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Annecy fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lorient landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Lorient attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 33% | Draw 27% | Lorient 40%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 48%, Lorient 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lorient's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.33 PPG, Lorient 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Lorient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.