Annecy 1-2 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 46%, yet in-form Le Mans provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Le Mans fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Le Mans in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 12 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Annecy have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports.
Le Mans's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Le Mans have posted 2W 4D 1L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.43 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Le Mans are 0.80 PPG clear of Annecy in recent Ligue 2 fixtures (2.20 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Le Mans goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 44% versus Le Mans 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 44% | Le Mans 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.49 xG and Le Mans 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.053 / defence 0.862 | Le Mans attack 1.100 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.178. Data: 50 Annecy games / 16 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 28%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Le Mans 3.57. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Mans (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 50% | Le Mans 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 12 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 46% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Annecy 1.49 / Le Mans 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.053 / def 0.862 | Le Mans attack 1.100 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Annecy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Le Mans xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Le Mans kick off?
Annecy vs Le Mans kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 December 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Le Mans?
Annecy 1 - 2 Le Mans.
Where is Annecy vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Le Mans part of?
Annecy vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 46% chance of winning, Le Mans a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Annecy and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Le Mans?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Le Mans in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Le Mans (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.05) and Le Mans's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Mans's attack (1.10x) against Annecy's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.87
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.61
1.12
Le Mans xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Annecy and 1.12 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 4D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Mans sit at 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Annecy against 1.69 for Le Mans. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Annecy's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Mans have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Le Mans in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Le Mans
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Le Mans in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Le Mans away?
Annecy's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.43 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Annecy or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Le Mans in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 0, Le Mans have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Le Mans 3-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Le Mans?
Le Mans have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 57% for Annecy, 86% for Le Mans — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Annecy) and 57% (Le Mans).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Annecy's games and 86% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Annecy's recent games and 57% of Le Mans's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Le Mans tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Mans defy the odds to beat Annecy 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Mans beat Annecy 1-2 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.49 xG and Le Mans 1.12 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Le Mans outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 0.86 against Le Mans attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 46% | Draw 26% | Le Mans 28%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Le Mans win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 44%, Le Mans 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Mans's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.38 PPG, Le Mans 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Mans win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.