Annecy vs Boulogne – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boulogne at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Boulogne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 March 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Boulogne have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Boulogne's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.30 PPG versus Boulogne's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Boulogne in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Boulogne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | Boulogne 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.88 xG and Boulogne 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.931 / defence 1.016 | Boulogne attack 0.788 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Boulogne's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Annecy games / 43 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 39%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Boulogne 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boulogne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Boulogne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | Boulogne 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 12 Mar 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 33% | Boulogne 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Annecy 0.88 / Boulogne 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.931 / def 1.016 | Boulogne attack 0.788 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Boulogne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Boulogne xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Boulogne kick off?
Annecy vs Boulogne is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 March 2027 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Boulogne part of?
Annecy vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 29% chance of winning, Boulogne a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Boulogne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Annecy and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
Record (2 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Boulogne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Annecy's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Boulogne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boulogne Win
29%
3.47
33%
3.07
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Annecy xG
Total xG
1.95
1.07
Boulogne xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
16%
6.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Annecy and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Annecy and 1.07 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 19W 8D 16L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Boulogne's form line: 10W 15D 18L from 43 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Boulogne.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Boulogne have gone 6W 9D 6L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 0.93 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 games (1.51 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 10W 15D 18L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Boulogne away?
Annecy's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.48 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Annecy or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Boulogne in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Annecy
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Annecy have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Boulogne 1-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Boulogne?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 67%, Boulogne 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Annecy) and 24% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Boulogne in 38%; Boulogne in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Annecy's recent matches and 38% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Annecy's recent games and 24% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Boulogne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.