Angers 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Angers vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Angers welcome Annecy to Stade Raymond-Kopa. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Angers — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Annecy — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 59% versus Annecy 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 67% | Annecy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.32 xG and Annecy 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Annecy attack 0.952 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: 1 Angers games / 39 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Angers 37% | Draw 26% | Annecy 36%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Annecy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 80% | Annecy 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 37% | Draw 26% | Annecy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Angers 1.32 / Annecy 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Annecy attack 0.952 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Angers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Annecy xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Annecy kick off?
Angers vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Annecy?
Angers 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Angers vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Annecy part of?
Angers vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 37% chance of winning, Annecy a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Angers and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Annecy in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.80
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Angers xG
Total xG
2.61
1.29
Annecy xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.77
10%
10.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Angers and 1.29 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 39 games, going 4W 6D 29L for 0.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.15 PPG from 39 outings (11W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 3W 3D 13L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (2W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Annecy's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Annecy in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 4W 6D 29L in their last 39 games (0.46 PPG), while Annecy have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (0.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 0.63 PPG; Annecy away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Angers or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Annecy in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Angers
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Annecy?
From 2 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Annecy 1-2 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Annecy?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 79%, Annecy 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Angers and 58% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Annecy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Angers's games and 47% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Angers vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Angers's matches and 58% of Annecy's.
Do Angers and Annecy tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Annecy in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Angers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Annecy finished level at 0-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.32 xG and Annecy 1.29 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Angers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Annecy attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Angers 37% | Draw 26% | Annecy 36%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 67%, Annecy 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.