Amiens 1-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Amiens welcome Paris FC to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
Paris FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Amiens) versus 2.00 (Paris FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Paris FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Amiens.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Paris FC winning.
It is worth noting that Paris FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Paris FC trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 45% versus Paris FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Paris FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 0.90 xG and Paris FC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.819 / defence 0.835 | Paris FC attack 0.979 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.093. Data: 60 Amiens games / 60 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Paris FC's lower xG of 0.89 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Paris FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Amiens 0.90 / Paris FC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.819 / def 0.835 | Paris FC attack 0.979 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Amiens (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Paris FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Paris FC kick off?
Amiens vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Amiens 1 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Amiens vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Paris FC part of?
Amiens vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 34% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Amiens and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
Record (5 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Paris FC 4W.
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in?
Amiens (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.82x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
34%
2.96
33%
3.04
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.80
0.89
Paris FC xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
41%
2.47
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Amiens and 0.89 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 15D 23L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Paris FC sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (24W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.35 PPG, Paris FC on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Amiens's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Paris FC have taken 1.45 points per game from 29 outings (11W 9D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 22W 15D 23L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.41 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Amiens or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Paris FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
5
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Paris FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Paris FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 45%, Paris FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Amiens and 34% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%; Amiens have failed to score in 28% of games; Paris FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 48% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 34% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Amiens and Paris FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Paris FC finished level at 1-1 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 0.90 xG and Paris FC 0.89 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Paris FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.91, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 33%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Paris FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.35 PPG, Paris FC 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.