Amiens 1-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Amiens welcome Nancy to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Nancy — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nancy's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Amiens are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Amiens, 0 for Nancy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nancy in-play and half-time data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Nancy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 44% | Nancy 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 2.34 xG and Nancy 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.393 / defence 0.970 | Nancy attack 0.727 / defence 1.689. League average goals — home 0.993 / away 0.955. Amiens carry an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — their λ of 2.34 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.689 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Amiens games / 27 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 75% | Draw 16% | Nancy 9%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Nancy 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 30% | Nancy 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 75% | Draw 16% | Nancy 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 44% | xG Amiens 2.34 / Nancy 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.393 / def 0.970 | Nancy attack 0.727 / def 1.689 | league avg home 0.993 / away 0.955 • Poisson stance: Amiens (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.34
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Nancy xG
44%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Nancy kick off?
Amiens vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Nancy?
Amiens 1 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Amiens vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Nancy part of?
Amiens vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 75% chance of winning, Nancy a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Nancy?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Amiens and Nancy in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.39) and Nancy's defence rating (1.69), the model arrives at 2.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
75%
1.34
16%
6.13
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.34
Amiens xG
Total xG
3.01
0.67
Nancy xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.13
16%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
10%
10.35
Win to Nil
38%
2.62
1%
115.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Amiens and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 2.34 expected goals for Amiens and 0.67 for Nancy, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Nancy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amiens's recent record stands at 7W 12D 8L from 27 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nancy, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 15L across 27 games — 0.74 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amiens by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nancy heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 6W 4D 4L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nancy's away record stands at 1W 4D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.78 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Nancy in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 7W 12D 8L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Nancy have gone 4W 8D 15L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Nancy away?
Amiens's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.57 PPG; Nancy away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Amiens or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Nancy in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Amiens's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Nancy?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when Amiens 1-2 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Nancy?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 36%, Nancy 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Amiens) and 50% (Nancy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 36% of games; Nancy in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Amiens's recent matches and 64% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Amiens's matches and 50% of Nancy's.
Do Amiens and Nancy tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Nancy in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Nancy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Nancy 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 2.34 xG and Nancy 0.67 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.39 / defence 0.97 against Nancy attack 0.73 / defence 1.69, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 75% | Draw 16% | Nancy 9%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 44%, Nancy 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Nancy (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.