Amiens 0-2 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Havre make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Amiens at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Le Havre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Amiens against 1.20 for Le Havre. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Le Havre 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 39% | Le Havre 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.34 xG and Le Havre 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.151 / defence 0.846 | Le Havre attack 0.838 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. Le Havre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Amiens games / 33 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 50% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 20%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Le Havre 5.00. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 30% | Le Havre 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 50% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Amiens 1.34 / Le Havre 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.151 / def 0.846 | Le Havre attack 0.838 / def 1.244 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Amiens (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Le Havre xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Le Havre kick off?
Amiens vs Le Havre kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Le Havre?
Amiens 0 - 2 Le Havre.
Where is Amiens vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Le Havre part of?
Amiens vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 50% chance of winning, Le Havre a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Amiens and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Le Havre?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Amiens and Le Havre in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Le Havre (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amiens's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (0.84x) against Amiens's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.35
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.07
0.73
Le Havre xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
5%
19.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Amiens and 0.73 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amiens come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 15D 9L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Le Havre sit at 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (12W 11D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Amiens against 1.42 for Le Havre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Amiens's home form reads 7W 6D 3L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Le Havre have taken 1.50 points per game from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.00 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Le Havre in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Le Havre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 9W 15D 9L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Le Havre away?
Amiens's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.69 PPG; Le Havre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Amiens or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Le Havre in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Amiens
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Le Havre?
From 4 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Amiens 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Le Havre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Amiens) and 38% (Le Havre) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Amiens) and 38% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Le Havre in 44%; Amiens have failed to score in 38% of games; Le Havre in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Amiens's recent matches and 38% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 38% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.34 xG and Le Havre 0.73 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Le Havre outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.15 / defence 0.85 against Le Havre attack 0.84 / defence 1.24, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 50% | Draw 30% | Le Havre 20%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 39%, Le Havre 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Le Havre's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.27 PPG, Le Havre 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.