Amiens 3-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to take on Amiens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Amiens) versus 1.20 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Amiens, 0 for Guingamp and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Amiens winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 17% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Guingamp trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 40% versus Guingamp 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Guingamp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.39 xG and Guingamp 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.104 / defence 1.022 | Guingamp attack 0.720 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 0.981 / away 1.060. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Amiens games / 21 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 52% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Guingamp 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 30% | Guingamp 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 52% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Amiens 1.39 / Guingamp 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.104 / def 1.022 | Guingamp attack 0.720 / def 1.286 | league avg home 0.981 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Amiens (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Guingamp kick off?
Amiens vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Amiens 3 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Amiens vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Guingamp part of?
Amiens vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 52% chance of winning, Guingamp a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Amiens and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.10) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.63
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.17
0.78
Guingamp xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
19.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Amiens and 0.78 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 4W 9D 7L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 6W 7D 7L from 20 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.05 PPG, Guingamp on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.30 PPG from 10 outings (3W 4D 3L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp in 65%.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 4W 9D 7L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Guingamp away?
Amiens's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.30 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Amiens or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Guingamp in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Amiens won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
2
Draws
4
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Guingamp?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Guingamp have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Guingamp 1-0 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 30%, Guingamp 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Amiens) and 40% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 50% of games; Guingamp in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amiens's recent games and 40% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Guingamp tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amiens run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Guingamp 3-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.39 xG and Guingamp 0.78 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Amiens beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Guingamp attack 0.72 / defence 1.29, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 52% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Guingamp 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.05 PPG, Guingamp 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.