Amiens 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Amiens welcome Annecy to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Amiens have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amiens have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Ligue 2 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Amiens are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.37 xG and Annecy 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.042 / defence 0.975 | Annecy attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.145 / away 0.981. Data: 39 Amiens games / 1 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amiens 48% | Draw 32% | Annecy 20%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Annecy 5.00. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 48% | Draw 32% | Annecy 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Amiens 1.37 / Annecy 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.042 / def 0.975 | Annecy attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.145 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Amiens (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Annecy xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Annecy kick off?
Amiens vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Amiens 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Amiens vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Annecy part of?
Amiens vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Annecy in?
Amiens (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Annecy (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.12
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.19
0.81
Annecy xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
5%
19.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Amiens and 0.81 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Amiens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 0.00 PPG, Annecy on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Amiens have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Annecy in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Annecy in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Annecy have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Annecy runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Sep 2024, when Annecy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Annecy have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Annecy 2-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Amiens's recent matches and 100% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Amiens's matches and 100% of Annecy's.
Do Amiens and Annecy tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Annecy in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.37 xG and Annecy 0.81 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Annecy attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 48% | Draw 32% | Annecy 20%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 100%, Annecy 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 0.00 PPG, Annecy 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.