Ajaccio 2-0 Nancy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajaccio at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nancy make the trip to Stade François Coty to face Ajaccio in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Ajaccio (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio at Stade François Coty this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade François Coty. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nancy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nancy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nancy have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Ajaccio. A 1.00 PPG lead over Nancy (1.80 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nancy half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 25% versus Nancy 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 17% | Nancy 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.12 xG and Nancy 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.916 / defence 0.816 | Nancy attack 0.724 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.054. Nancy bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Ajaccio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Ajaccio games / 12 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 47% | Draw 34% | Nancy 19%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Nancy 5.26. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Nancy's lower xG of 0.62 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajaccio are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 17% | Nancy 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 47% | Draw 34% | Nancy 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 32% | xG Ajaccio 1.12 / Nancy 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.916 / def 0.816 | Nancy attack 0.724 / def 1.352 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Nancy xG
32%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Nancy kick off?
Ajaccio vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Nancy?
Ajaccio 2 - 0 Nancy.
Where is Ajaccio vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Nancy part of?
Ajaccio vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 47% chance of winning, Nancy a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Ajaccio and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nancy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Nancy in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Nancy (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ajaccio's attack rating (0.92) and Nancy's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nancy's attack (0.72x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.0%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
47%
2.15
34%
2.93
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.75
0.62
Nancy xG
2.15
47%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 10.9 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 12.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.62 for Nancy, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, Ajaccio have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 6W 4D 2L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nancy's form line: 1W 5D 6L from 12 games, 0.67 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Nancy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ajaccio have posted 2.17 PPG from 6 outings (4W 1D 1L).
On the road, Nancy have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Nancy in 67%.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Nancy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Nancy in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Nancy have gone 1W 5D 6L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Nancy away?
Ajaccio's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 2.17 PPG; Nancy away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Nancy in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ajaccio
0
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nancy?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2022, when Nancy 0-2 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Nancy?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 17%, Nancy 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Ajaccio and 33% for Nancy.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 33% of games; Nancy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Nancy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 67% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Ajaccio's recent games and 33% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Nancy tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Nancy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajaccio cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Nancy 2-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.12 xG and Nancy 0.62 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.92 / defence 0.82 against Nancy attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 47% | Draw 34% | Nancy 19%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 17%, Nancy 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nancy's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajaccio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.