Toulouse 0-3 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Stade Brestois 29.

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Analysis

Stade Brestois 29 make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Toulouse's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Toulouse have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Stade Brestois 29 edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Toulouse 1–1 Stade Brestois 29 — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 59% versus Stade Brestois 29 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 59% | Stade Brestois 29 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Toulouse surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Stade Brestois 29 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.47 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.955 / defence 1.082 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.247 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Stade Brestois 29 have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.88. Data: built from Toulouse's last 71 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 71.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 30% | Draw 23% | Stade Brestois 29 47%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.32 | Draw 4.41 | Stade Brestois 29 2.12. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.88) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 50% (last 10 away games).

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