Toulouse 1-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Toulouse welcome Reims to Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium de Toulouse. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Toulouse are significantly better at Stadium de Toulouse than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Toulouse) versus 1.20 (Reims). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Reims in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 52% versus Reims 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 57% | Reims 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.36 xG and Reims 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.812 / defence 1.137 | Reims attack 1.122 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.496. Data: 6 Toulouse games / 44 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 25% | Reims 49%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Reims 2.04. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reims are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Toulouse 40% | Reims 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 26% | Draw 25% | Reims 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Toulouse 1.36 / Reims 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.812 / def 1.137 | Reims attack 1.122 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Reims (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Reims xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Reims kick off?
Toulouse vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Toulouse 1 - 0 Reims.
Where is Toulouse vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Reims part of?
Toulouse vs Reims is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 26% chance of winning, Reims a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Toulouse and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Toulouse and Reims in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.81x the league average against Reims's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
26%
3.81
25%
4.07
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.27
1.91
Reims xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
15%
6.75
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
4%
25.68
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.91 for Reims, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 24W 12D 8L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims's form line: 12W 16D 16L from 44 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Reims.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (14W 6D 2L).
On the road, Reims have gone 7W 8D 7L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Reims in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 24W 12D 8L in their last 44 games (1.91 PPG), while Reims have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Reims away?
Toulouse's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.18 PPG; Reims away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Reims in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Reims runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Reims won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Reims specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Reims have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Reims 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Reims?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Reims 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Toulouse) and 41% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Reims in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 59% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Toulouse's recent games and 41% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Reims tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Toulouse defy the odds to beat Reims 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Reims 1-0 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.36 xG and Reims 1.91 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reims landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.81 / defence 1.14 against Reims attack 1.12 / defence 1.13, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 26% | Draw 25% | Reims 49%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 57%, Reims 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reims's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.