Toulouse 1-2 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Nantes travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse at Stadium de Toulouse this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Nantes have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nantes have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Toulouse) versus 0.50 (Nantes). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Nantes and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Toulouse winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Toulouse in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Nantes in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Nantes 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 53% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nantes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.791 / defence 1.075 | Nantes attack 0.754 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.086. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Toulouse games / 58 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 2.86 | Nantes 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Toulouse 70% | Nantes 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Toulouse 1.12 / Nantes 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.791 / def 1.075 | Nantes attack 0.754 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Nantes xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Nantes kick off?
Toulouse vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Toulouse 1 - 2 Nantes.
Where is Toulouse vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Nantes part of?
Toulouse vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Nantes a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Toulouse and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 1 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Nantes (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.79) and Nantes's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nantes's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.59
35%
2.83
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.00
0.88
Nantes xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Toulouse and 0.88 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Toulouse come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 17D 24L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.95 PPG from 58 outings (12W 19D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.17 PPG, Nantes on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Toulouse's home form reads 7W 11D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.71 points per game from 28 outings (4W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.98 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Nantes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 17W 17D 24L in their last 58 games (1.17 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 19D 27L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Nantes away?
Toulouse's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.14 PPG; Nantes away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Toulouse's record when hosting Nantes specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Toulouse
4
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Nantes?
From 7 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 1, Nantes have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 61%, Nantes 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Toulouse) and 50% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Toulouse have failed to score in 29% of games; Nantes in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Nantes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Toulouse's games and 50% of Nantes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Toulouse's recent games and 50% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Nantes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Nantes in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nantes defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Toulouse 1-2 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nantes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Nantes outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Nantes attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 39% | Draw 35% | Nantes 26%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nantes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 53%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Nantes's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.17 PPG, Nantes 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nantes win broke the near-deadlock. Nantes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.