Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Toulouse at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium de Toulouse plays host to Toulouse versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Toulouse have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Toulouse. A 0.60 PPG lead over Estac Troyes (1.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Toulouse have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Estac Troyes in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Toulouse lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Toulouse — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 55% versus Estac Troyes 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 59% | Estac Troyes 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.97 xG and Estac Troyes 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.922 / defence 1.113 | Estac Troyes attack 1.233 / defence 1.457. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.287. Estac Troyes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.457 — this is suppressing Toulouse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Estac Troyes have an above-average attack strength of 1.233 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Toulouse games / 58 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 34%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Estac Troyes 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Estac Troyes 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 42% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Toulouse 1.97 / Estac Troyes 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.922 / def 1.113 | Estac Troyes attack 1.233 / def 1.457 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Estac Troyes xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Toulouse 4 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes part of?
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 42% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Toulouse and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Toulouse 1W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in?
Toulouse (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Toulouse's attack rating (0.92) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (1.23x) against Toulouse's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
42%
2.37
24%
4.24
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.73
1.77
Estac Troyes xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
5%
20.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.77 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 30W 15D 13L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 13W 18D 27L from 58 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Toulouse are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (18W 8D 3L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 7W 4D 18L from 29 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Toulouse are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 30W 15D 13L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 13W 18D 27L in their last 58 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Estac Troyes away?
Toulouse's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 2.14 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Toulouse
0
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
From 2 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2023, when Toulouse 4-1 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Estac Troyes?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 55%, Estac Troyes 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Toulouse and 62% for Estac Troyes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Estac Troyes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Toulouse's games and 69% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Toulouse's matches and 62% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Toulouse and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Estac Troyes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Estac Troyes 4-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.97 xG and Estac Troyes 1.77 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Toulouse beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Estac Troyes attack 1.23 / defence 1.46, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 42% | Draw 24% | Estac Troyes 34%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 59%, Estac Troyes 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.34 average — above their attacking norm. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.