Toulouse 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Toulouse vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Toulouse and Auxerre meet at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Toulouse's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadium de Toulouse this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Auxerre have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Toulouse, 1.20 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Toulouse have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Auxerre managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2023, ended 5–0 with Toulouse winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Toulouse and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 53% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 57% | Auxerre 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.19 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.785 / defence 1.070 | Auxerre attack 0.767 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.254. Toulouse's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Toulouse games / 36 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 30%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Auxerre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 50% | Auxerre 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Toulouse 1.19 / Auxerre 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.785 / def 1.070 | Auxerre attack 0.767 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Auxerre xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Auxerre kick off?
Toulouse vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Toulouse vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Auxerre part of?
Toulouse vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 38% chance of winning, Auxerre a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Toulouse and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Toulouse 3W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in?
Toulouse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Auxerre (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Toulouse's attack at 0.79x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.77x) against Toulouse's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.20
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Auxerre xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
9%
10.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.03 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Toulouse come into this having played 74 games, going 35W 18D 21L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.41 PPG from 74 outings (27W 23D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Toulouse against 1.41 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Toulouse's home form reads 20W 9D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.27 points per game from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Toulouse are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.23 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 35W 18D 21L in their last 74 games (1.66 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 27W 23D 24L in their last 74 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Auxerre away?
Toulouse's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.86 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Toulouse or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Auxerre in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Toulouse won 6-0 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Toulouse have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Toulouse
3
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Auxerre?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Toulouse 0-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Auxerre?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 54%, Auxerre 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Toulouse) and 49% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Toulouse's games and 60% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Toulouse's recent games and 49% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Auxerre tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.19 xG and Auxerre 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against Auxerre attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 38% | Draw 31% | Auxerre 30%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 57%, Auxerre 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Toulouse 1.66 PPG, Auxerre 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.