Toulouse 1-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Angers travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Toulouse stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's home record at Stadium de Toulouse: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Angers — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Angers have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 0.80 PPG versus Angers's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Toulouse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Angers in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Toulouse, 0 for Angers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Toulouse winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Toulouse trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Angers trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 61% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 58% | Angers 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.33 xG and Angers 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.851 / defence 1.006 | Angers attack 0.751 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.346. Data: 41 Toulouse games / 7 Angers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Toulouse 40% | Draw 35% | Angers 25%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Angers 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 60% | Angers 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 40% | Draw 35% | Angers 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Toulouse 1.33 / Angers 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.851 / def 1.006 | Angers attack 0.751 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Angers xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Angers kick off?
Toulouse vs Angers kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadium de Toulouse.
What was the final score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Toulouse 1 - 1 Angers.
Where is Toulouse vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Angers part of?
Toulouse vs Angers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 40% chance of winning, Angers a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Toulouse and Angers will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
Record (2 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 0 | Angers 0W.
What form are Toulouse and Angers in?
Toulouse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Angers (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
40%
2.51
35%
2.82
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Toulouse xG
Total xG
2.34
1.02
Angers xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.02 for Angers, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Toulouse's recent record stands at 12W 12D 17L from 41 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Angers, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 13L across 41 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-D-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Angers by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Toulouse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Toulouse have managed 4W 7D 9L from 20 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Angers's away record stands at 6W 6D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Angers's season.
The Goals Picture
Toulouse are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.41 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Angers in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 12D 17L in their last 41 games (1.17 PPG), while Angers have gone 19W 9D 13L in their last 41 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Angers away?
Angers's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 0.95 PPG; Angers away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Toulouse and Angers runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Mar 2025, when Toulouse won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Toulouse's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Toulouse
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Angers?
From 6 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 3, Angers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Angers last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Angers 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Angers?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 65%, Angers 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Toulouse) and 40% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Angers in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Angers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Toulouse's games and 55% of Angers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Angers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Toulouse's recent games and 40% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Toulouse and Angers tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Angers in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse and Angers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadium de Toulouse, Regular Season - 8, as Toulouse and Angers drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Toulouse 1.33 xG and Angers 1.02 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Toulouse attack 0.85 / defence 1.01 against Angers attack 0.75 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Toulouse 40% | Draw 35% | Angers 25%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Toulouse 58%, Angers 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Toulouse's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.