Strasbourg 1-1 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Strasbourg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Strasbourg vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade de la Meinau to face Strasbourg in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Strasbourg have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Strasbourg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Strasbourg have posted 4W 1D 2L at Stade de la Meinau — 1.86 PPG. They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Reims (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reims's away record: 1W 3D 3L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Strasbourg. A 0.80 PPG lead over Reims (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Strasbourg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 62% versus Reims 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 62% | Reims 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.93 xG and Reims 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 1.312 / defence 1.066 | Reims attack 0.824 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.171. Strasbourg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Strasbourg games / 13 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 55% | Draw 28% | Reims 17%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Strasbourg (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Strasbourg 57% | Reims 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 55% | Draw 28% | Reims 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Strasbourg 1.93 / Reims 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 1.312 / def 1.066 | Reims attack 0.824 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Reims xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Strasbourg vs Reims kick off?
Strasbourg vs Reims kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Strasbourg 1 - 1 Reims.
Where is Strasbourg vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Reims part of?
Strasbourg vs Reims is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 55% chance of winning, Reims a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Strasbourg and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Strasbourg vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in?
Strasbourg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Reims (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Strasbourg's attack rating (1.31) and Reims's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (0.82x) against Strasbourg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
55%
1.81
28%
3.58
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.03
Reims xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
15%
6.87
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
2%
40.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.03 for Reims, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Reims?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Strasbourg's recent record stands at 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Strasbourg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reims, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 5L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Strasbourg by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Strasbourg have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Reims's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Strasbourg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Reims
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Strasbourg and Reims in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Reims have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Reims away?
Strasbourg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 1.86 PPG; Reims away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Reims in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Strasbourg have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Strasbourg
4
Draws
1
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Reims?
From 8 meetings on record, Strasbourg have won 3, Reims have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Reims 0-1 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Reims?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 57%, Reims 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Strasbourg) and 29% (Reims).
On the defensive side: Reims in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Strasbourg play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Strasbourg's games and 57% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Strasbourg vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Strasbourg's recent games and 29% of Reims's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Strasbourg and Reims tend to score early?
Strasbourg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Reims in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg and Reims share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg and Reims finished level at 1-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.93 xG and Reims 1.03 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Strasbourg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 1.31 / defence 1.07 against Reims attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 55% | Draw 28% | Reims 17%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 62%, Reims 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Strasbourg arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.