Strasbourg 3-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 37%, yet in-form Lyon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Strasbourg vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Strasbourg host Lyon at Stade de la Meinau in Ligue 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Strasbourg — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Strasbourg at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Strasbourg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Lyon have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lyon's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lyon are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 9 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Strasbourg, 5 for Lyon and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Strasbourg 1–2 Lyon — a Lyon win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lyon in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Strasbourg 62% versus Lyon 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Strasbourg 61% | Lyon 59%). Note also that Lyon surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Strasbourg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Strasbourg 1.32 xG and Lyon 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Strasbourg attack 0.988 / defence 0.914 | Lyon attack 1.170 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.226. Data: built from Strasbourg's last 56 games and Lyon's last 56.
Result probabilities: Strasbourg 37% | Draw 26% | Lyon 37%. Fair-value odds: Strasbourg 2.69 | Draw 3.82 | Lyon 2.73. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Strasbourg 37% and Lyon 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Strasbourg 40% (last 10 home games) | Lyon 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Strasbourg vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de la Meinau • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Strasbourg 37% | Draw 26% | Lyon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Strasbourg 1.32 / Lyon 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Strasbourg attack 0.988 / def 0.914 | Lyon attack 1.170 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Strasbourg and Lyon level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Strasbourg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lyon xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Strasbourg vs Lyon FAQs
What time does Strasbourg vs Lyon kick off?
Strasbourg vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stade de la Meinau.
What was the final score in Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Strasbourg 3 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Strasbourg vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Meinau.
What competition is Strasbourg vs Lyon part of?
Strasbourg vs Lyon is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Strasbourg a 37% chance of winning, Lyon a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Strasbourg and Lyon will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Strasbourg vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Strasbourg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Strasbourg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Strasbourg's last 56 games and Lyon's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.82
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Strasbourg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.31
Lyon xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
10%
9.99
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Strasbourg vs Lyon Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Strasbourg and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Strasbourg and 1.31 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Strasbourg vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Strasbourg have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 25W 13D 18L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Lyon's form line: 31W 9D 16L from 56 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Strasbourg on 1.57 PPG, Lyon on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Strasbourg have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 27 home games (16W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Strasbourg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lyon have gone 11W 7D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Strasbourg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Strasbourg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.80 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Strasbourg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lyon in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Strasbourg
Blended
Lyon
Blended
Strasbourg (Home) vs Lyon (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Strasbourg
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Strasbourg vs Lyon Form FAQs
What form are Strasbourg and Lyon in coming into this match?
Strasbourg have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while Lyon have gone 31W 9D 16L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Strasbourg at home or Lyon away?
Strasbourg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Strasbourg at home: 2.00 PPG; Lyon away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Strasbourg or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Strasbourg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lyon in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Strasbourg's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Strasbourg
1
Draws
5
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Strasbourg vs Lyon H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Strasbourg and Lyon?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Strasbourg have won 4, Lyon have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Strasbourg and Lyon last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Strasbourg 3-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Strasbourg and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Strasbourg 63%, Lyon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Strasbourg and 56% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Strasbourg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Strasbourg home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Strasbourg vs Lyon Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Strasbourg and Lyon matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Strasbourg's games and 59% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Strasbourg and Lyon matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Strasbourg's matches and 56% of Lyon's.
Do Strasbourg and Lyon matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Strasbourg's recent matches and 70% of Lyon's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Strasbourg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lyon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Strasbourg beat Lyon 3-1 at Stade de la Meinau, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Strasbourg 1.32 xG and Lyon 1.31 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Strasbourg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Strasbourg attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Lyon attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Strasbourg 37% | Draw 26% | Lyon 37%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Strasbourg 61%, Lyon 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Strasbourg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Strasbourg 1.57 PPG, Lyon 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Strasbourg win broke the near-deadlock. Strasbourg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Lyon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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