Stade Brestois 29 0-0 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis-Le Blé plays host to Stade Brestois 29 versus Nice in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 4 February 2024 at 16:05 UTC.
Form
Stade Brestois 29 (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
Nice have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nice have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Stade Brestois 29, 1.90 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Stade Brestois 29 1W, Nice 3W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 54% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 49% | Nice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.63 xG and Nice 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.228 / defence 0.803 | Nice attack 0.807 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.108. Data: 57 Stade Brestois 29 games / 57 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 57% | Draw 29% | Nice 14%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Nice 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stade Brestois 29 (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Nice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Feb 2024, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 57% | Draw 29% | Nice 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.63 / Nice 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.228 / def 0.803 | Nice attack 0.807 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Nice xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 4 February 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Stade Brestois 29 0 - 0 Nice.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 57% chance of winning, Nice a 14% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Record (5 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 1W | Draws 1 | Nice 3W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Nice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Nice's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.81x) against Stade Brestois 29's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
57%
1.76
29%
3.43
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.35
0.72
Nice xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
28%
3.60
3%
36.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 0.72 for Nice, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stade Brestois 29 come into this having played 57 games, going 21W 16D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nice sit at 1.68 PPG from 57 outings (26W 18D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Stade Brestois 29 against 1.68 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stade Brestois 29's home form reads 12W 8D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Nice have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (12W 8D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.19 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Nice in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Nice have gone 26W 18D 13L in their last 57 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Nice away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.57 PPG; Nice away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nice won 6-0 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stade Brestois 29
3
Draws
5
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, Nice have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nice 2-2 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 54%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 36% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Nice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 50% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 36% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Nice tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nice in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stade Brestois 29's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 20, as Stade Brestois 29 and Nice drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.63 xG and Nice 0.72 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.23 / defence 0.80 against Nice attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 57% | Draw 29% | Nice 14%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 49%, Nice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.39 PPG, Nice 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.