Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Le Havre travel to Stade Francis-Le Blé to take on Stade Brestois 29. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stade Brestois 29's home record at Stade Francis-Le Blé: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
Le Havre — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Brestois 29 1.40 PPG, Le Havre 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stade Brestois 29, 0 for Le Havre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 40% versus Le Havre 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 42% | Le Havre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.89 xG and Le Havre 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.082 / defence 0.994 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.309. Data: 40 Stade Brestois 29 games / 40 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 21%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Le Havre 4.76. Stade Brestois 29 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Stade Brestois 29 40% | Le Havre 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.89 / Le Havre 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.082 / def 0.994 | Le Havre attack 0.895 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Le Havre xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Stade Brestois 29 2 - 0 Le Havre.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 52% chance of winning, Le Havre a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre?
Record (2 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 2W | Draws 0 | Le Havre 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Le Havre (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stade Brestois 29's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.70
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.16
Le Havre xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.16 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 10D 11L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre's form line: 9W 11D 20L from 40 games, 0.95 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stade Brestois 29 are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.85 PPG from 20 outings (10W 7D 3L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 9D 9L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stade Brestois 29 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 1.02 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 19W 10D 11L in their last 40 games (1.68 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Le Havre away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.85 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Stade Brestois 29 or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stade Brestois 29 have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Le Havre in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Stade Brestois 29
0
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, Le Havre have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 40%, Le Havre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Stade Brestois 29) and 50% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Le Havre in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stade Brestois 29's recent matches and 50% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 50% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Le Havre tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stade Brestois 29 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Le Havre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 2-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.89 xG and Le Havre 1.16 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Le Havre landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Le Havre attack 0.90 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 52% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 21%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 42%, Le Havre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Havre's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stade Brestois 29 arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Le Havre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.