Stade Brestois 29 3-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stade Brestois 29 host Clermont Foot at Stade Francis-Le Blé in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Francis-Le Blé this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Francis-Le Blé. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stade Brestois 29 are significantly better at Stade Francis-Le Blé than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Brestois 29 1.20 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Stade Brestois 29 have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Clermont Foot have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Stade Brestois 29 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Stade Brestois 29 and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stade Brestois 29 58% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Brestois 29 50% | Clermont Foot 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Brestois 29 1.38 xG and Clermont Foot 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.059 / defence 1.046 | Clermont Foot attack 0.944 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.085. Data: 50 Stade Brestois 29 games / 51 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 42% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Stade Brestois 29 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Clermont Foot 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stade Brestois 29 are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Stade Brestois 29 50% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Francis-Le Blé • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Brestois 29 42% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Stade Brestois 29 1.38 / Clermont Foot 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.059 / def 1.046 | Clermont Foot attack 0.944 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Clermont Foot xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What was the final score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 3 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis-Le Blé.
What competition is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot part of?
Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Stade Brestois 29 a 42% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Stade Brestois 29 3W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in?
Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Brestois 29's attack at 1.06x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Stade Brestois 29's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.23
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Stade Brestois 29 xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Clermont Foot xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29 and 1.07 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Stade Brestois 29 have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 16W 14D 20L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 19W 12D 19L from 50 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stade Brestois 29 on 1.24 PPG, Clermont Foot on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stade Brestois 29 have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 8W 8D 8L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Stade Brestois 29 are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.08 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Stade Brestois 29 have gone 16W 14D 20L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 19W 12D 19L in their last 50 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Brestois 29 at home or Clermont Foot away?
Stade Brestois 29's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Brestois 29 at home: 1.42 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2023, when Stade Brestois 29 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Brestois 29's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Stade Brestois 29
2
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
From 6 meetings on record, Stade Brestois 29 have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-1 Stade Brestois 29.
Who has won more matches between Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stade Brestois 29 58%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Stade Brestois 29) and 46% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Stade Brestois 29 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Brestois 29 home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Brestois 29 play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Stade Brestois 29's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Brestois 29 vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Stade Brestois 29's recent games and 46% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stade Brestois 29 and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Stade Brestois 29 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stade Brestois 29 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Clermont Foot 3-0 at Stade Francis-Le Blé, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Brestois 29 1.38 xG and Clermont Foot 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.06 / defence 1.05 against Clermont Foot attack 0.94 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Brestois 29 42% | Draw 31% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Brestois 29 50%, Clermont Foot 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stade Brestois 29 1.24 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.