Saint Etienne 1-3 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 1W 4D 2L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris Saint Germain's away record: 5W 1D 1L from 7 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (2.29 PPG). They are averaging 1.86 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Paris Saint Germain are 1.60 PPG clear of Saint Etienne in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 79% and Paris Saint Germain 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Paris Saint Germain 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.18 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.883 / defence 1.384 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.039 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.189. Data: 14 Saint Etienne games / 14 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 48%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Paris Saint Germain 2.08. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 86% | Paris Saint Germain 57% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Saint Etienne 1.18 / Paris Saint Germain 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.883 / def 1.384 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.039 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Saint Etienne 1 - 3 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 24% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.04x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
24%
4.17
28%
3.51
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.89
1.71
Paris Saint Germain xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
4%
23.04
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.71 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain, meanwhile, have gone 12W 1D 1L across 14 games — 2.64 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris Saint Germain's away record stands at 5W 1D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Paris Saint Germain in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 games (0.86 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 12W 1D 1L in their last 14 (2.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.00 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won 1-6 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
4
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Paris Saint Germain have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-6 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Saint Etienne, 57% for Paris Saint Germain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Saint Etienne) and 57% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Saint Etienne's games and 57% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Saint Etienne's matches and 57% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Saint Etienne and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Saint Etienne 1-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.18 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.71 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Paris Saint Germain outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.04 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 24% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 48%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Paris Saint Germain 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.64 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.