Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Nantes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Nantes meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Nantes's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nantes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantes away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Saint Etienne, 0.70 for Nantes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Saint Etienne 0W, Nantes 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nantes half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 33% versus Nantes 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 43% | Nantes 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Nantes 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.889 / defence 0.942 | Nantes attack 0.918 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.312. Data: 17 Saint Etienne games / 51 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Nantes 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | Nantes 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Saint Etienne 1.51 / Nantes 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.889 / def 0.942 | Nantes attack 0.918 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Nantes xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Nantes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Nantes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Nantes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Saint Etienne and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Record (3 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 2 | Nantes 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Nantes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Nantes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.89) and Nantes's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.92x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 17/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.42
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.65
1.13
Nantes xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
17.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.13 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 23W 8D 20L from 51 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 26L across 51 games — 0.96 PPG, with D-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Nantes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Saint Etienne by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 3D 7L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantes's away record stands at 7W 7D 12L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.98 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Nantes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Nantes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 20L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Nantes have gone 12W 13D 26L in their last 51 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Nantes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.96 PPG; Nantes away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Nantes in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
1
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 0, Nantes have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Saint Etienne 1-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Nantes?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 35%, Nantes 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Saint Etienne) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 27% of games; Nantes in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 54% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Nantes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Nantes in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Nantes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 18, as Saint Etienne and Nantes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.51 xG and Nantes 1.13 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.89 / defence 0.94 against Nantes attack 0.92 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 44% | Draw 29% | Nantes 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 43%, Nantes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.