Saint Etienne 1-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lyon at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Lyon at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 outings — a 0.38 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 0W 2D 2L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 3W 3D 2L from 8 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.62 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lyon's 1.50 PPG return is 1.12 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 0.38 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lyon in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Saint Etienne 75% and Lyon 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 62% | Lyon 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 0.99 xG and Lyon 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.702 / defence 1.323 | Lyon attack 0.735 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.299. Saint Etienne's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Saint Etienne games / 8 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 36% | Lyon 39%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Lyon 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 75% | Lyon 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 36% | Lyon 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Saint Etienne 0.99 / Lyon 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.702 / def 1.323 | Lyon attack 0.735 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Lyon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lyon xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Lyon kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Saint Etienne 1 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Lyon part of?
Saint Etienne vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 25% chance of winning, Lyon a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Saint Etienne and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Lyon in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.12 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Lyon (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (0.70) and Lyon's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lyon's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
25%
3.98
36%
2.76
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.25
1.26
Lyon xG
3.98
25%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.26 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 0W 3D 5L from 8 games, a 0.38 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 2L across 8 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Saint Etienne heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lyon's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Lyon in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Lyon in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 games (0.38 PPG), while Lyon have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Lyon away?
Lyon's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 0.33 PPG; Lyon away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Lyon runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Lyon specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Lyon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Saint Etienne 2-1 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 67%, Lyon 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Saint Etienne and 67% for Lyon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lyon in 33%; Saint Etienne have failed to score in 33% of games; Lyon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 33% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Saint Etienne's matches and 67% of Lyon's.
Do Saint Etienne and Lyon tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lyon in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne and Lyon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Lyon finished level at 1-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 0.99 xG and Lyon 1.26 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.70 / defence 1.32 against Lyon attack 0.73 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 25% | Draw 36% | Lyon 39%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 62%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.