Rennes 0-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rennes face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Rennes (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Rennes have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Toulouse have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Rennes, 1.20 for Toulouse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rennes's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) — Rennes have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Toulouse in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Toulouse edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Rennes 1–2 Toulouse — a Toulouse win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rennes 64% and Toulouse 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 59% | Toulouse 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rennes surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.44 xG and Toulouse 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.076 / defence 0.790 | Toulouse attack 0.995 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.407. Rennes have a tight defence (rating 0.790), which is pulling Toulouse's projected output down. Data: built from Rennes's last 44 games and Toulouse's last 44.
Result probabilities: Rennes 44% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 28%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.29 | Draw 3.54 | Toulouse 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rennes are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 60% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 44% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rennes 1.44 / Toulouse 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.076 / def 0.790 | Toulouse attack 0.995 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Rennes (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Toulouse xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Rennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Rennes 0 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Rennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Toulouse part of?
Rennes vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 44% chance of winning, Toulouse a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rennes and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.08) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.99x) against Rennes's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 44 games and Toulouse's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
44%
2.29
28%
3.54
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Toulouse xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Rennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Rennes and 1.11 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rennes's recent record stands at 15W 12D 17L from 44 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 17L across 44 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Rennes against 1.25 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 9W 5D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 9W 4D 8L across their last 21 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rennes are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rennes have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 15W 12D 17L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 14W 13D 17L in their last 44 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Toulouse away?
Rennes's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.52 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rennes
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Toulouse?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 2, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Rennes 1-0 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 71%, Toulouse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Rennes and 57% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Toulouse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rennes's games and 52% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Rennes's matches and 57% of Toulouse's.
Do Rennes and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Rennes's recent matches and 76% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Rennes 0-2 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.44 xG and Toulouse 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rennes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 0.79 against Toulouse attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 44% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 28%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Toulouse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 59%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Toulouse's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.30 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Toulouse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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