Rennes 2-0 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rennes at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 6 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rennes (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Roazhon Park, Rennes have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roazhon Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rennes are significantly better at Roazhon Park than their overall form suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stade Brestois 29's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Rennes against 1.90 for Stade Brestois 29. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rennes 0W, Stade Brestois 29 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 41% versus Stade Brestois 29 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 46% | Stade Brestois 29 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.92 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.356 / defence 0.943 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.876 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.165. Rennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Rennes games / 22 Stade Brestois 29 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 60% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 18%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Stade Brestois 29 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 30% | Stade Brestois 29 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 60% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Rennes 1.92 / Stade Brestois 29 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.356 / def 0.943 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.876 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Rennes (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Stade Brestois 29 xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes 2 - 0 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 60% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Record (1 meetings): Rennes 0W | Draws 1 | Stade Brestois 29 0W.
What form are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.36) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (0.88x) against Rennes's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.46
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.89
0.96
Stade Brestois 29 xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
37.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Rennes and 0.96 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rennes's recent record stands at 10W 4D 8L from 22 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 8L across 22 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stade Brestois 29 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Rennes against 1.27 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 7W 1D 3L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.27 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 68%.
Defensively: Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Stade Brestois 29
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 10W 4D 8L in their last 22 games (1.55 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Rennes's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.00 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Rennes or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rennes go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rennes
3
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 5, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 3-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 36%, Stade Brestois 29 91% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rennes) and 54% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Stade Brestois 29?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Rennes's games and 91% of Stade Brestois 29's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Rennes's recent games and 54% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stade Brestois 29.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Stade Brestois 29 2-0 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.92 xG and Stade Brestois 29 0.96 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stade Brestois 29 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 60% | Draw 22% | Stade Brestois 29 18%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 46%, Stade Brestois 29 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.55 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rennes win broke the near-deadlock. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.